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Maile L. Nadelhoffer
Dear Readers.
EBR Director, Marshall Vest, gives his take on where Arizona's economy is headed in 2012 and beyond. Data show recovery has begun, but the pace is painfully slow. However, recent revisions to aggregate measures do suggest that growth may be accelerating.
Also in this issue, Dr. Alberta H. Charney, examines the tax burden shift inherent in the proposed flat tax legislation being considered at both the state and national levels.
Arizona's Economic Outlook 2012-13:
On the Road to Recovery
Arizona’s economy improved modestly during 2011. Data show that recovery has begun, but the pace painfully slow. Recent revisions to aggregate measures suggest that growth may be accelerating as 2011 comes to an end, and we expect the pace to quicken as 2012 unfolds. However, remaining imbalances in real estate, depressed population mobility, and severe budget constrains in the public sector will continue to restrain the pace of recovery
Economic Outlook 2012-13Review the slide presentation from EBR's 31st Annual Forecast Luncheon held on December 9th, 2011. Presenters: Marshall J. Vest, Director of the Economic and Business Research Center; Prof. Gerald Swanson, Ph.D., Thomas R. Brown Chair in Economic Education at the Eller College of Management; and Anthony Chan, Managing Director & Chief Economist for J.P. Morgan Private Wealth Management. [more]
While the flat income tax bill proposed during the 2011 Arizona legislative session failed, some version of a flat tax bill is expected to be back during the 2012 legislative session. Any flat tax bill if passed will cut income taxes for highest-income Arizonans and substantially shift tax burden to low-and middle-income households. The proposed flat tax bill, if passed, would have shifted almost $400 million in tax burden from taxpayers making over $100,000 to taxpayers making less than that. This shifting of tax burden to low- and middle-income households would most certainly dampen economic activity in Arizona through reduced demand.[more]
